On the one hand, it’s somewhat deflating that the 2024 draft doesn’t feature a transformational, Victor Wembanyama–level prospect. On the other hand, the wide range of opinions and possibilities sets up one of the most intriguing draft nights (or, for the first time, two nights) in recent memory. And make no mistake: There are plenty of difference makers in this year’s class. Check out The Ringer’s NBA Draft Guide for deep dives on the top 70 prospects and Kevin O’Connor’s final mock draft, and read below as our experts tackle the five biggest questions heading into Wednesday night.
1. Whom should the Atlanta Hawks take at no. 1?
Danny Chau: Alex Sarr. There is no clear and obvious choice this year, so I’d opt for the player with the highest long-term upside on a team that may have to retool sooner rather than later. The Hawks could break the sound barrier as far as pace with lineups that include Sarr at the 5—he has the end-to-end speed of a young Pascal Siakam, but Sarr is 3 inches taller. Slot Sarr into Atlanta’s best lineups for Clint Capela, and the Hawks would have five players who could conceivably push the ball up the floor after a rebound and make a play. If the Hawks aren’t going to be particularly good anytime soon, might as well make them as entertaining as possible.
J. Kyle Mann: Donovan Clingan. There are very few sure things in any draft, but in this one, confidence is even rarer and harder to come by—which is why I find myself leaning toward what at first glance might seem like conservative thinking, though I don’t think that’s the case. Clingan is 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, a surprisingly smooth gait and directional mobility when defending in space, and a bit of a mean streak when protecting the rim. At a second, closer glance, some promising micro-skills on offense sweeten the pot: He showed a real knack and comfort level operating in a quick-read system away from the rim as a screener and is an underrated passer. Clingan’s bag around the rim will need to expand and sharpen, but he was an opportunistic post-up presence within UConn’s offense—ducking in at the rim when defenses over-pursued the Huskies’ shooters and getting off the ball when extra help came. He was in the 92nd percentile passing out of the post when the defense committed and in the 99th percentile when hard doubled. I think Clingan will be a playoff-level anchor within a year of being in the league, if not sooner.
Kevin O’Connor: Even though Sarr refused a workout with the Hawks, they should take him anyway—not to keep him, though. Their goal should be to trade Sarr to the Wizards for the second pick and additional assets. Then either stay at no. 2 or trade down again with the highest bidder. The Spurs, Hornets, and other teams have all made an effort to move up. Flipping picks with San Antonio would be ideal. Due to the Dejounte Murray trade, the Spurs have the rights to Atlanta’s firsts in 2025 and 2027, plus the rights to swap in 2026. Gross. If the Hawks can get the no. 4 pick from the Spurs plus one of those, it’d be a win. In a nutshell, the goal should be to end up with Clingan and some more draft capital to make up for what was lost years ago.
Tate Frazier: I laid this out on One Shining Podcast this week (shameless plug), but I believe the Hawks have two choices at no. 1: take the best player on the board you know another team behind you wants (Sarr) or take a player that will excite the city of Atlanta.
If the Hawks choose the second option, I believe the best bet for fanfare is Rob Dillingham from Kentucky. He’s really with the shifts, can take the mantle from Trae Young, and will be a headlining showstopper in the city. I know it’s a stretch to take him no. 1, but why not have some fun at the top? Also, if you’re doubting my credentials after this pitch, just remember I am the same guy who predicted Thon Maker no. 10 to the Bucks back in 2016, so there’s that.
2. Who is your favorite player in this class?
Mann: Look, roll your eyes and keep scrolling if you must—I am completely fine with being completely predictable here because this is one of those rare times in life when the stars align and your basketball sensibilities and rooting interests are perfectly simpatico. Reed Sheppard is an elite, dynamic 3-point shooter, both as a pull-up threat and off the catch. He has an almost preternatural ability to see where an advantage might be and exploit it. The real swing skills are self-creation, which could raise his long-term ceiling, and defensive prowess, which could be the major pain point in keeping him on the floor in serious games. On the former, the real separator skill that I want to see more of before becoming fully radicalized is a wiggliness handling the ball and creating for himself so that we can see those passing chops pop. On the latter, because he’s not physically imposing, I think he’ll have to bulk up and really hone his point-of-attack technique to avoid being that first schematic chess move that coaches make in the half court.
If the Sheppard believers are wrong, it’ll be a real benchmark for future analytics cynics to point to, because his stat profile is that unusual. Since the 2007-08 season, do you know how many college players have completed a season while shooting over 50 percent from 3 (minimum 50 attempts), with an assist percentage over 20 and a steal percentage over 4? There’s been one. It’s Reed Sheppard.
Frazier: All the prospects who played college basketball (especially the ones who appeared on OSP) have my full support …
That being said, my favorite player in the class is Harrison Ingram. He’s just a guy you want on your team, and I can’t wait to watch him impact winning at the highest level with his rebounding prowess and ability to knock down timely triples. Also, he’s a chess wizard, so that’s gotta count for something, right?
Chau: Ryan Dunn. I’m a sucker for cursed archetypes, and Dunn embodies the spirit of players like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and André Roberson: elite defensive prospects with an absolute dearth of offensive viability as wing-size players. Dunn is the most explosive player of that ilk in a long time. He’s a monster rim protector for his size (6-foot-6) who covers an absurd amount of ground. He racks up deflections and steals. I hope he’s the one to make sense of this curious phylum of basketball players.
O’Connor: Sheppard because he has a flamethrower jumper and causes chaos on defense with his deflections, steals, and blocks. Sheppard might be on the smaller side, but if he falls into an ideal situation (like the Spurs or Rockets), then that won’t matter as much. Sheppard’s shooting ability alone could make him the best player in the class.
3. Who is the most interesting team in the draft?
O’Connor: The Spurs, because their decisions will help lay the foundation for Wembanyama to contend for championships on an annual basis. With the fourth and eighth picks alone, they could go so many different directions. On top of that, they own all of their future picks, plus four firsts from other teams and three rights to swap. It’s a choose-your-own-adventure draft for San Antonio.
Frazier: The right answer is probably the Spurs, but I don’t want to be “right.” Instead, I want to use this opportunity to talk about the Hornets. The Buzz have new ownership, a new coach, a new GM, a Curry (maybe both, eventually?), and a new franchise cornerstone in Brandon Miller. With the sixth pick, a talented player like Stephon Castle, Cody Williams, or maybe even Sheppard could fall right into the Hornets’ lap. I’m the only person brave enough to mention “the Hornets” and “interesting” in the same sentence, so please bear with me as I talk myself into a surprise play-in run next season!
Chau: The Spurs. San Antonio is in a race against itself in trying to build out a perfect supporting cast for Wembanyama, and having the luxury of two top-10 picks gives the team both optionality and leverage, whether it means trading up or down for their guy in the draft or trading out for an established star (Darius Garland?). How they proceed will give an indication of the team’s updated timeline after year one of the Wemby era.
Mann: It’s hard to simulate a more interesting situation for a team than having two picks in the top 10 of a draft with the agenda of building around a player who has a trajectory that could peak as high as Wembanyama’s. Seeing as they had a slew of guys that are debatable as NBA players at all, the Spurs stand to make year two of the Wemby era a more optimized experience as it pertains to not only, ya know, winning, but also watchability. Do they go double birds in the air and just pick two elite shooters? Do they take another big, athletic forward like Sarr or Ron Holland and just decree that scoring around the basket is a thing of the past? Do they shrug off any worry about overlap with Devin Vassell or Keldon Johnson and take cheaper/younger players at those positions? My hunch is that Vic is about to enter that territory where his mere presence raises your floor and limits opportunities to take real swings at the top of the draft, so I’m guessing they just prioritize talent over fit.
4. Where will Bronny James get drafted?
Frazier: The L.A. Blue Devils will select LeBron James Jr. with the 55th pick and fulfill Bronny’s dream of hearing his name called by Adam Silver (Mark Tatum).
Chau: The Raptors, with the 31st pick. I’m not here for the drama; I just think his physical point-of-attack defense would be a nice addition off the bench. No, really!
O’Connor: The Lakers. This feels like a safe bet, unless another team feels a lot of confidence that LeBron James would leave Los Angeles to play for them. There are too many quality prospects in this draft for any other team to risk wasting a pick on such an underdeveloped prospect as Bronny.
Mann: The manipulative tentacles of Klutch make it difficult for me to imagine any team daring to tangle with Rich Paul before the Lakers pick at 55. You accomplish the goal of getting Bronny somewhere (supposedly) secure and low pressure (not sure that’s even a thing anymore for him) and keep dad happy.
5. One final prediction before Adam Silver starts reading names …
Mann: Matas Buzelis will say something hilarious during his post-pick interview. That kid seems to say what he’s thinking at all times.
Chau: Four French prospects (Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Tidjane Salaun, and Pacome Dadiet) will be selected in the first round. No non–North American country has ever produced more than three first-round picks in a single draft class. (And Canada’s the only other non-U.S. country to do it, with four back in 2019.)
Frazier: As is tradition, people will complain about ESPN’s draft coverage, and I will talk myself into whoever the Hornets select with their picks.
O’Connor: We will get plenty of surprises. In my 11 years of making draft guides and talking to people around the NBA, I can’t remember a draft with less consensus.
