Kimberly MillerPalm Beach Post
Show Caption
Hurricane Beryl strafed the tiny Windward Islands on Monday, July 1, in a riot of 150-mph winds as storm experts watched in wonderment and worry at the cyclone’s spiral from a tropical storm to a furious Category 4 in a day’s time.
And then it became a Category 5. As of early Tuesday morning, Beryl had wind speeds of 165 mph as it moved west-northwest at 22 mph about 696 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica.
It is something the world had never seen on record in the Atlantic basin. Beryl is the earliest a Cat 4, then earliest a Cat 5, has formed. Its rapid intensification is the deepest that has occurred this time of year. It was the farthest east-forming hurricane on record for June.
“We watched it in disbelief,” said Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami senior research associate. “This sort of thing is rare even in the middle of September and here we are at the end of June, beginning of July, and seeing things you hardly ever see.”
Beryl is no concern to the United States at this point, but McNoldy was among a chorus of meteorologists to see Beryl’s furious extravagance as a foreshadowing of a potentially brutal season.
“Floridians should be prepared for what may be a very long and trying few months,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground and a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. “Conditions are ripe for a bonkers hurricane season.”
The last time a storm of Beryl’s magnitude occurred this early in the Caribbean was 2005 when Cat 4 Hurricane Dennis on July 8. Dennis was followed that month by Cat 5 Emily, which became a hurricane just east of the Caribbean and followed a path similar to Beryl’s forecast track south of Cuba and into Mexico.
More: Hurricane season 2024: Rapid intensification forecasts improve, and then there was Otis
There were 28 named storms in 2005 — a record breaker until 2020 when 30 storms formed. It was also a season that stretched deep into winter and even jumped into 2006 with Tropical Storm Zeta finally calling it quits Jan. 6.
And it was a year that saw four Category 5 storms, including devastating U.S. landfalls from major hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Hurricane Beryl setting records
“Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005 — two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” said Colorado State University senior researcher and hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.
National Hurricane Center Senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake summed up Beryl in a social media post Sunday saying simply “Holy moly.”
One aspect that makes Beryl’s formation so unusual is that wind shear, Saharan dust and cooler ocean temperatures tend to inhibit storm formation in the main development region between Africa and the Caribbean this time of year.
Although this season’s thickest plume of Saharan dust was wafting in the Atlantic last week, Beryl skirted below the dry air, taking advantage of low wind shear and record warm ocean temperatures.
The National Hurricane Center first identified the tropical wave that would become Beryl on Tuesday, June 25 as a jumble of showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. By Friday night, it was a tropical storm forecast to reach Category 2 strength with winds topping out at 105 mph.
Live hurricane tracker: See Beryl's path:
Early on Saturday, NHC forecasters said there was a significant chance of rapid intensification, which is defined as an increase in wind speeds of 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period.
Beryl’s intensification nearly doubled that, growing by 65 mph in 24 hours.
That rapid intensification rate is the strongest for a hurricane this early in the calendar year on record, said Klotzbach, with the caveat that intensification rates were likely underestimated before the satellite era began in about 1966.
The previous record for rapid intensification was Bertha in 2008.
Remember the Mean Season?: Two decades later, 2004 is remembered as the 'mean season' as hurricanes shredded Florida
“I think we should read into this. Unfortunately, it’s not good news,” McNoldy said about Beryl. “This is going to be a doozy of a season because we have such warm water temperatures.”
The water temperatures where Beryl was spinning Monday were as warm as 84 degrees, more akin to what would be seen in the second week of September.
While last hurricane season was novel because there was a storm-thwarting El Niño climate pattern paired with storm-friendly water temperatures, this year is unique in that the hot water is still simmering but La Niña is emerging. La Niña reduces wind shear in the Atlantic giving tropical cyclones more opportunities to gain a footing.
Behind Hurricane Beryl is an area given a 60% chance of development
Behind Beryl, an area of low pressure dubbed Invest 96L was given a 60% chance of development over the next seven days. During a normal year, Beryl might have pulled up enough cool water in its wake to deter 96L but McNoldy said the warm water runs deep enough that an upwelling is unlikely.
Short-lived Tropical Storm Chris also formed and fizzled after making landfall in Mexico early Monday.
“The oceanic and atmospheric conditions are unprecedented for this time of year,” Masters said. “Peak hurricane season is still over a month and a half away.”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She coversreal estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com.Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.
